Dynamic Beta Calculation

Assume CAPM is applicable and works empirically without any doubt in the theory, we can then calculate a stock Beta dynamically over time as it represents the updated historical stock prices from the latest price. Hence, the stock Beta changes over time.

Please download this excel file: BetaCalc.xls and enable macro as it contains some VBA codes to run the automation of the beta calculation.

This spreadsheet consists of 3 worksheets that dynamically calculates the beta of Astra stock returns (ASII.JK) against the Jakarta Composite index returns (^JKSE) as being updated over time by clicking the "Update" buttons. Thus, we can get the latest Beta of Astra stock.

The first worksheet is JKSE sheet that contains the recent updated market prices and the second one is ASII sheet for the recent updated stock prices. In these two sheets, there are two "Update" buttons that allow us to update the recent prices from web query and to record the recent prices into the Beta sheet (third worksheet).

The stock Beta is then calculated by simply finding the slope between the periodical stock (x axis) and market (y axis) returns.

Gaza Strip and West Bank: there's no such a thing as a power sharing

Any winning revolution or liberation may end up to a power sharing between the elements in the movement. The one ultimate goal is now divided into some separate goals of the elements. Such power sharing will never happen whatsoever.

As we know Palestinian National Authority (PNA) consists of the area of Gaza Strip and West Bank. For many years prior to its independence, Hamas had been figthing for Gaza Strip while Fatah under Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) had been figthing for West Bank. Today, Hamas dominant force is centered in Gaza Strip and Fatah dominant force is centered in West Bank.

Fighting between Fatah and Hamas has occured several times since PNA independence. The last result could be concluded that if Hamas might establish a new Gaza Strip government, Fatah might then establish a new West Bank government.

Since independence in March 2003, PNA has 5 prime ministers, 3 from Fatah, 1 appointed from Hamas, after it won a democratic legislative election in Jan 2006, and the latest PM is from the Third Way, the unity of Fatah-Hamas government, appointed 3 days ago 15 Jun 2007.

Assume there's no such a thing as a power sharing government, Palestinian National Authority (PNA) might be divided into two states of one Palestinian nation: Gaza Strip State and West Bank State.

Web design: speed, valid, simple and creative

Web designing is fun and this weekend I managed to redesign my blog considering factors of speed, valid, simple and creative.

Speed. I managed to speed up my home page until 8.15 seconds for 56Kbps connection and 2.94 seconds for 1.44Mbps connection according to the report from WebsiteOptimization.com. I've reduced some images and optimised some CSS and XHTML scripts. What is your speed?

Valid. Optimising some scripts, this web page is however still valid CSS and valid XHTML. There are some many scripts can be used to create a website, but only some scripts are actually valid, including one to embed a flash file (.swf) into a web page.

Simple. I managed to include only important hyperlink texts in the web page and let visitors' curiosity goes from there. Post entries and related images are the result and consequence of clicking that come after the simplicity and for the completion to satisfy the curiosity.

Creative. Inspired by emergy-C, I still keep the option of low energy colour to view my web pages. The idea is to reduce electricity power.

I really want to reduce the download time to 5 seconds for 56Kbps and 2 second for 1.44Mbps if it's possible.

Unlimited Joost Invites

Of the 900 Joost invites last month, I've sent to everyone who wants it based on the comments or by emailing me directly. I've also sent to some people I chose for introduction. Up until now, I've sent around 100 invites.

Now, I have unlimited Joost invites. I thought Joost will go public anytime soon, but it hasn't. Thus, if you can afford the bandwidth cost for Joost please put your name (first, last) and email in the comment and I will send the invites. Cheers.


Joost is pronounced as "juiced" but it's also a common Dutch name pronounced "Yost".

Everyone is the winner

Sejahtera Manufacturing has a project valued Rp1 billion with Rp300 million expected return and then borrows from IndoBank.

Sejahtera's Rp1 billion loan at Rp150 million interest to IndoBank is protected with Rp100 million from Suwito Corp for a maximum Rp500 million default.

There's no reason for IndoBank to not give the loan to Sejahtera Manufacturing since its profit is still Rp50 million after the protection cost.

Suwito expects that the default may not be more than Rp 100 million so that he can profit from the protection revenue. As he worries, he then buy protection from Buyung Corp at Rp20 million for a maximum Rp100 million default. Suwito can now secure his income from the Rp100 million protection paid by IndoBank.

We can say that Buyung may be the loser because he needs to cover Rp100 million if Sejahtera defaults while only receiving Rp20 million from Suwito.

The secret of this transaction is that Buyung Corp has already owned a majority of Sejahtera's shares and bet on Sejahtera's prospect that could achieve at least Rp200 million return. Paying Rp150 million interest to IndoBank and receiving Rp20 million protection plus Rp200 million return, Buyung and Sejahtera still pocket Rp70 million net profit.

Every transaction is based on the perceptions of the probability and likelihood of default among the players.

IndoBank's perception is a default by Rp500 million that needs to be protected with Rp100 million. Suwito's perception is a default by Rp100 million that needs to be protected with Rp20 million. Meanwhile, Buyung has no perception of default at all since he knows the situation of the project.

Buyung must have a larger size of business in order to help Sejahtera’s project from default. This kind of help usually comes when the project is already underway and seems to have some issue but still prospective.

Who is the biggest winner here? IndoBank gets Rp50 million, Buyung and Sejahtera share Rp70 million and Suwito collects Rp100 million, so Suwito is the biggest winner.

Why is that? The first bettor on uncertainty normally enjoys the biggest return.

In the future: Cibeureum

In 2050 Indonesia becomes a strong ultra-nationalist country. The people, coming from different backgrounds of different islands and different places in Asia, have been assimilated into one official culture and language, i.e. Indonesia. While China is isolated in the mainland, all area and islands surrounding it including Hong Kong, Taiwan and South-East Asia receive politic and economic directives from the United Nations of Indonesia (UNI).

The economy has grown rapidly with a strategy of maximum borrowings for high-tech development projects collateralised by all possible natural resources. Indonesia becomes the first technology provider country followed by the US, Japan, China, India and EU. The secret is that the capital cost is the lowest one among those countries.

In politics, the representative system has been abolished and turned into a direct executive board elected through a personalised qualification rating system. This rating system is a computerised system from a database that stores all historical data of an individual relating to his or her contribution to the country and state. The highest one becomes the chairman of the board.

Years prior to the fall of the United Nations in 2045, there are eight main groups in the world: The America (US, Canada and Latino), The Europe (EU, UK and Russia), The Sushi (Japan and Korea), The Old Man (Africa and Middle East), The Mongol (China) and The Moghul (from Iran, India to Bangladesh), The Pacific (Australia, New Zealand and Pacific Islands including Hawaii) and The UNI. Since the Treaty of Nuclear Non-proliferation has not been recognised, there is no alliance formed among these groups.

In 17 August 2050, nuclear bombs are dropped in five main cities of the UNI, in Jakarta, Makassar, Singapore, Bangkok and Hong Kong. News and information networks are cut off while there's no electricity almost everywhere. The flow of refugees comes from those main cities to the area surrounding. While the UNI officials assumed death, no one of the people knows what happened.

People are wondering who has been dropping the nuclear bombs. Is it the Mongol, The Sushi, The Moghul or The Pacific? Could it be The America, The Europe or The Old Man? What is happening with the UNI military? Do they surrender?

A group of people in a village called Cibeureum think the same way. They have no idea with what happened with the current blackout and no tv or internet receipts. Before the bombing, this village is a peaceful place set with a combination of beautiful nature and high technology. There is no crime occurred in this village. This village becomes a sough-after retirement place for some smart people.

Cibeureum is one of the high-tech villages in Indonesia. One retired computer genius named Sangaji managed to establish an internet connection directly to the satellite and tell about all information and news he can get to his friends Bayu, a retired government official, and Hartono, a retired army general.

The story is that the bombs are dropped by the alliance of The Mongol and The Pacific with a new high-tech rocket that cannot be detected with sonar and satellite detectors. One source confirms that this is not an alliance attack but rather than a cooperative attact for a mutual benefit resulted from the attack considering that The Indo is located between them. Also in the news, the other groups won’t involve in this issue as to avoid a further confrontation. The UNI nuclear launch centres have been paralysed by locking in the launch code with a high-tech decoding system developed by The Mongol and The Pacific. The UNI has no power to do anything to counterattack.

However, there is one demand to end this war. The demand is that The UNI has to mobilise its skilled workers to The Mongol and The Pacific industry site. [I think they just want to beat The UNI in terms of a cheaper capital cost.] Finally, the day after the bombing, The UNI government has ordered to the military to go to all area of The UNI to pick up some skilled workers to be sent to The Mongol and The Pacific, including Cibeureum.

Cibeureum village is a small village but it has a school called Cibeureum School of Technology (CST) found by Sangaji, Bayu and Hartono (SBH). The students’ skill is above the national average. SBH start to worry about this matter. They are fully nationalists and will never send the students outside the country. Assuming that they have no power to hold the military force entering their village, they plan to set something great.

They choose 100 excellent students and implant a microchip into an individual’s brain with help from Gerhana, a retired surgeon, who is Bayu’s sister. The microchip stores data of how one must act in the future and an anti-electromagnetic pulse. The message in the microchip is to reset everything the workers have made during the time of their works. Thus, there is no value added for the enemy in using the workers. SBH assume that if they can reset the technology in one country while they can move on, they can counterattack in the future.

In 2060, ten years after the bombing, The UNI attacks back The Mongol and The Pacific. The UNI does not attack with nuclear bombs but instead with electromagnetic pulse bombs that attack people's brain. The electromagnetic pulse has paralysed almost all people’s brains of The Mongol and The Pacific. Seeing the success of this counterattack, The UNI continues to attack the other five groups, including The America, The Europe, The Old Man, The Sushi and The Moghul with the goal of achieving supremacy in the world.

The rest of the world has a brain dead unless the people of The United Nations of Indonesia. However, the bombs work in males' brains so that the war leaves the females for future breeding.

Global Peace Index

See the full ranking
See the methodology
See the drivers of peace

I'm feeling great and peace seeing this index.


The Global Peace Index aims to:
- Highlight to the general population the relative position of nations’ and regions’ peacefulness;
- Catalyse philanthropic support for further research of peace and funding of peace initiatives;
- Serve as a foundation for primary, secondary and tertiary educational study;
- Emphasise the need for governments to consider the drivers of peace in policy decisions.

The Global Peace Index has been developed in conjunction with:
- The Economist Intelligence Unit
- an international panel of peace experts from Peace Institutes and Think Tanks
- the Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies, University of Sydney, Australia

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