This story began when I wrote about benchmark issue in CAPM. Then, it continued with an Excel model for optimisation of shares or funds portfolio. The main problem defined in the model is to select shares and find the optimised asset allocation in a portfolio with three scenarios:
1. Assumed CAPM can't be applied and historical data is important therefore historical mean (average) return and standard deviation are used to simulate random return normal distribution and calculate Variance Covariance matrix.
2. Assumed CAPM can't be applied and cumulative data is important therefore projected mean (average) return and standard deviation are used to simulate random return normal distribution and calculate Variance Covariance matrix.
3. Assume CAPM can be applied and cumulative data is important therefore projected CAPM return and standard deviation are used to simulate random return normal distribution and calculate Variance Covariance matrix.
Starting by processing 13 NZ shares in the optimisation model with the three scenarios then applying the result of the share selection and the asset allocation into three passive portofolios, after one month holding period I found the return as follows:
Scenario 1 = -8.98%
Scenario 2 = -2.86%
Scenario 3 = +6.06%
I will update after 12 months.
CAPM return and cumulative data matter
Easter break day 2: Christchurch
Christchurch name is taken from the Christ Church of the University of Oxford, which the building and rooms have been used for the Harry Porter movie set. It's such a religious name for a city. Does it represent the spirit of the city? the people?
After having breakfast at the motel, we started the day around 9 am headed to Christchurch Botanic Gardens. We parked our car at Armagh St car park. It's free admission. We spent an hour walking around the garden and taking photos. It's kind of quiet garden (early morning of course) with big trees and beautiful rose garden. Kezia picked up a flower that she is not supposed to do that in a city garden.
From Botanic Gardens, we continued to Antartic Centre, which is located next to the Airport. We paid $60 for 2 adults and Kezia is free. The most interesting experience was the little blue penguin watch. Kezia really enjoyed it as she was so close enough with the penguins unintendedly stepping out to the penguin area. Then, the chilling -5 degrees Celcius room and the experience of the Antartic Storm when the temperatur was reduced to -18! I also spent a moment looking at the Scott Base photos.
We left Antartic Centre going back to motel for having a quick lunch. After lunch, we went to the Cathedral Square. We parked our car somewhere on Worcester St CBD area. We found that the public toilet is a two level building with a sliding door at the entrance! We went into the Cathedral and coming to the prayer spot where Nina and Kezia were praying together. We then took the tram circling the city square. Kezia's stroller is put just in front of the tram. Around 3 pm, we stopped by a cafe inside the Cathedral Junction to have a Flat White and a Hot Chocolate. Nina bought some souvenirs at the shop next to the cafe. It's a good spot to take photos with a passing tram in the background.
Last place we visited was the Christchurch Gondola. We paid $60 for 2 adults including the tram ride before. The gondola ride is exactly the same with one in Rotorua so I wasn't really excited. Except for Kezia. At the top almost 500m above sea level, we could see the Christchurch City and Lyttleton Harbour and the Pacific Ocean. Because it's cloudy we couldn't see the Southern Alps.
The next day, Easter Sunday, we checked out around 5 am. I parked the car and returned the car key at the Avis counter. We flew back to Wellington with 7.15 flight.
Arriving at Wellington airport, we went to the long term car park using a free shuttle. We're back to our "blue car" as Kezia saying and "no more white car". We went straightaway to the market for Nina's shopping and then church for Easter Sunday service. In the afternoon, we have an Easter Dinner with Indonesians of our church.
HAPPY EASTER
Easter break day 1: Mt Cook
We had a two-day break going to South Island, specifically to Mt Cook and Christchurch. In the midst of NZ recession outlook, we still however continued with our plan to have a costly holiday. Do we have to avoid that? No. We need to live our life to the full, yet with a help from one important economic tool, i.e., saving. Our next holiday should be Christmas considering that we need to save some money again after spending quite much on this Easter Holiday.
We started from home around 5 am on Good Friday to Wellington Airport and parked our car at the long term car park. It costs $41 for 2 nights. We booked the flight two months ago, so we could get the cheapest available fare from Air NZ. Our flight to Christchurch boarded on 6.30 am. The flying time from Wellington to Christchurch is normally 45 minutes. Kezia really enjoyed the flight.
Arriving at Christchurch Airport around 7.30 am, I then went to Avis Rental Cars counter to pick up the car key reserved and sign some papers. The base rental fee for 2 days is $110 ($55/day) plus airport fee $30. For the sake of "no-hassle trip", I also added a GPS costing $20 for 2 days ($10/day). Putting the GPS into practice, I could save lots of time wondering where to go using a map, particularly in the urban area. Bear in mind, I've never been in South Island or Christchurch before even after 8 years living in NZ.
Finding the car is a small nice new car (2007), we became overwhelmed since our car is 12 years older. I loaded all of our stuff in to the car including Kezia's carseat and stroller. Kezia seemed happy as she thought the white car was our new car. After setting the GPS, we drove to the City Worcester Motel to check-in. The motel is located in the city centre area and the rate is quite cheap compared to the other motels, costing $200 for 2 nights. It's clean but with old furniture. I met some Japanese and Dutch tourists staying next door and downstair.
After getting the room key, we straightaway drove to Lake Pukaki. I set the GPS to Lake Pukaki Visitor Centre. It's a 4 hours drive departing around 9 am and arriving at Pukaki around 13 pm. We then had our lunch there. Nina prepared nasi goreng and tuna croissant for our lunch. We spent time enjoying the scenery and taking photos.
We then decided to drive to Mt Cook village as it's not really part of the plan. But Alison, my boss, suggested me to visit Mt Cook because it's worth coming by after driving a long way from Christchurch. The route is a dead end road, easy drive as not so much traffic, the best scenic drive in NZ and it's only 30 minutes from Pukaki. We enjoyed the scenery of the green Lake Pukaki on the right, Ben Ohau Range on the left and The Southern Alps on the front. It's an amazing beautiful scene. Thanks Ally. A bit tear in my eyes for someone who had been waiting for 8 years to enjoy the beauty of South Island. Next tear would be Queenstown! (I have the plan in my mind and pocket)
After walking around the Mt Cook village and taking photos, we realised that The Church of Good Shepperd, Lake Tekapo, is our main plan. Then, we drove back to Lake Tekapo as we actually just passed through it on the way to Pukaki. The view from the church is amazing. The church has a glass window behind the altar so that the congregation can enjoy the scenery while having the service. We had a big while having a good time taking photos and lying down on the grass enjoying the scenery of the lake, Southern Alps and Two Thumb Range.
We left Lake Tekapo around 6 pm headed back to Christchurch. The next day we had our Christchurch time.
Good Friday is good, thank be to God for the safe flight and drive.
